Discover new trends in country risks and monitor your business globally

With global growth expected to reach 3.2% in 2024 (according to the IMF), the global economy remains relatively stagnant. For the record, it stood at 3.1% in 2023.
 

Europe: growth is expected to be moderate, with marked disparities between countries. Activity will be sluggish in several major economies, including Germany (1.3%), France (1.4%) and Italy (0.7%). Spain should see better growth (2.1%).

United States: Economic growth is slowing. For 2024, GDP growth is projected at around 1.9% (vs. 2.5% and 2.7% in 2022 and 2023).

China: The economy in 2024 is showing signs of recovery, but still faces a number of major challenges. The real estate sector continues to suffer and  domestic demand remains weak, which could lead to a rise in exports exacerbating trade tensions.

Geopolitical risks remain at the heart of concerns. These include :

• The impact of the upcoming US elections on the wars in Ukraine and Israel,
• New recent Houthi attacks in the Red Sea
• Tensions surrounding Taiwan and China

GGrade reveals the following reclassifications this quarter: Albania (+0.75), Bahrain (+0.50), Costa Rica (+0.50), Madagascar (+0.50), Mauritania (+0.50), Nicaragua (+0.50), Portugal (+0.50), Spain (+0.50), United Kingdom (+0.50).

On the other hand, the following downgrades should be noted:

• Uzbekistan (-0.50): The economy remains solid and GDP is on the rise, thanks to a large influx of money from Russia. However, the possibility of Western sanctions is a major risk.
• Ecuador (-0.50): Since the beginning of the year, the country’s situation has deteriorated, and armed militias have taken control of the country, giving way to street violence and repeated crimes against public figures. The political situation is uncertain, and the country’s liquidity has fallen sharply.
• Estonia (-0.50): Estonia has been hit by the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine and its geographical proximity to Russia.