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After a 11.2% surge in 2023 we expect motor vehicles and parts output growth to slow down to 0.5% in 2024. In key markets such as the US, China and Europe consumers have been reluctant to spend money, in particular on ‘big ticket items’ such as vehicles. We expect the automotive industry to grow by 2.1% in 2025, supported by looser monetary policies and a gradual recovery in consumer spending. However, tariffs mposed by the next US administration are a downside risk for the industry. In the long term, emerging Asian markets will lead global production growth, as low vehicle densities in China, India and other countries leave ample room for growth amid an increasing middle-class.